In statistics, there is a well-described phenomenon called “regression to the mean”. In simple terms it describes the fact that if you measure something and get an extreme result and then measure it again, the second result is likely to be less extreme. This is because the laws of physics in our universe tend everything towards a condition of stability or equilibrium. Once you understand the equilibrium point of a system then you can predict individual outcomes of events within that system with a better than chance level of success. This is how bookies make their money.
Regression to the mean is seen in football all the time. Individual players will go through patches of form where they play well above their normal or mean level of performance. The only thing that we can be sure of is that they will eventually regress to the mean and return to their normal form. Equally, when a high-quality player is going through a bad patch, everyone knows that it is a matter of time before they regress to the mean and their performances improve. On a side note, those United supporters ready to write Robin Van Persie off should bear this in mind. His mean level of performance is world class and age notwithstanding he will regress to the mean at some point in the near future. When he does, let’s hope that he is still wearing the red of Manchester United.
Manchester United’s equilibrium point over the past 20yrs is way above their current performances might suggest. So the only thing that we can be sure of is that, at some point, regression to the mean will occur. Recent performances have been so extreme in terms of their deviation from the mean that we can and should expect improvements even if nothing else were to change.
The reason for the poor performances, whilst they have been blamed on a poor quality squad, are more likely to be a combination of a failure of the squad to buy in to the new management’s strategy coupled with poor communication from a manager who is frankly crumbling under the weight of expectation. He would have been well advised to come in and not change too much too quickly but instead he seemed so concerned with being his own man and drawing a line under the Fergie era that he over-reacted. If Manchester United were a mechanical watch, Moyes immediately prised the back off to calibrate it only for springs to fly out in all directions. He may have scrabbled around on the floor for those springs but he doesn’t know enough about the workings of the watch to know how to put them back in the right place. For now, he has simply looked both ways and forced the case back onto the watch and is whistling innocently whilst it runs in reverse. No need to admit to anyone what happened, he can simply blame it on the poor quality Serbian and Japanese parts.
The previous game against West Brom has given us glimpses of hope. The play was more fluid, particularly up front and Moyes appeared to have gambled on deviating from a rigid 4-4-2. This next game against Liverpool causes a bit of a quandary. In an ideal world the next game would have been against weaker opposition when the same game plan could have been fielded again to give everyone a chance to get used to it. Unfortunately the next game is Liverpool. Will Moyes continue the gamble and trust his players to perform or will he regress to the mean and revert to the archetypal Everton manager of old by setting his team up not to get beaten by Liverpool?
Sunday is judgement day. If United set up in a rigid 4-4-2 hoping not to concede and to maybe nick one on the break then, for me, Moyes is unlikely to be a successful manager of Manchester United even if we win the game.
In this game we will see the true measure of Moyes’ ability to be a leader. Will he stand up and gamble or will he hide?
5 replies on “Is Sunday Judgement Day for David Moyes?”
This game will not affect Moyes future at utd whether win or lose, the game is big & can go either way, a good performance is what is important for moyes future not the result. The mid week game against olympiacos is more important for moyes future.
If Moyes has the bottle to field the side (or very close to it) which beat WBA last week then United can beat Liverpool and have an improved last few weeks of the season. If he reverts to a more cautious approach including players such as Valencia and Young playing out wide, and Carrick and Cleverley playing together, then we will get more of the same dross that has swamped our season.
Moreyears needs2 wake up and start playing the japanese more. Adnan should be a 2nd half sub.
I would guess Moyes judgement day is about this time next season,when he will have had enough time to reconstruct and train a winning team.As for todays match,just hope he gets the tactics right and can make the right changes in the game.
The article is written with a strong emphasis on system based predictions. Let’s keep it simple Football has changed a great deal since Alex Ferguson took the reins at MUFC. The philosophy that MUFC wont change their manager during this season or even the next in my opinion is totally incorrect.
Football is a multi billion dollar business and it is very much a results focused industry.
David Moyes has shown no sign of being able to do the job. His honeymoon period was catered for by the Alex Ferguson appeal to the crowd in SAF last game at old Trafford. Moyes has lived on that statement ever since.
Be patient, be supportive…these were the requests to the crowd. Patience does not exist in football it can’t because there’s no time to be patient because time is money and money drives the game. Talented managers are like talented players, very rare. Do we all believe David Moyes has got the talent to do the job? If we do then where’s the evidence. If we don’t why is he going to be given a war chest of money to spend when he can’t evidence success.
I can’t understand why all the back room staff has gone . When the librarian retires you don’t throw away all the books.